China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has gained significant traction in Africa since its launch in 2013, with 53 African nations participating in varying degrees. In 2023, African countries received US$21.7 billion in BRI deals, including investments in ports, railways and renewable energy.
Focusing on less financially risky projects
Originally conceived to emulate the ancient Silk Road trade routes, the BRI has grown significantly. It now involves 151 countries spanning Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America. It includes the Digital Silk Road and Health Silk Road, broadening its scope beyond infrastructure to encompass various fields including tourism, capacity building and nuclear energy.
The BRI has a strategic element, providing China with a platform to project its power globally. The initiative ensures long-term access to resources and markets while positioning China as a key ally to developing nations, challenging traditional Western dominance in these regions.
The BRI also offers an alternative source of development finance, particularly benefitting poorer African nations by addressing substantial infrastructure investment deficits with minimal conditions. Consequently, China has become a pivotal lender in Africa, extending loans exceeding US$170 billion to 49 African countries and regional institutions from 2000-22. BRI projects are often executed swiftly by Chinese contractors on a turnkey basis, making them more attractive than the slower, condition-heavy financing from institutions like the World Bank and African Development Bank.
The initiative ensures long-term access to resources and markets while positioning China as a key ally to developing nations, challenging traditional Western dominance in these regions.
However, BRI projects haven’t always been well conceived or strategically chosen, leading to outcomes that fail to deliver the desired economic impact. Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway for example has been criticised for not being economically viable or benefitting local communities. These kinds of ‘white elephant’ projects intensify worries about debt sustainability – if they don’t generate sufficient economic benefit, countries may struggle to repay loans.
While BRI projects have contributed to debt distress in some host countries, experts argue that this isn’t a deliberate strategy by Beijing. The “debt trap diplomacy” narrative has been challenged, with an emphasis on Chinese banks’ need to recover their investments. For instance, Ethiopia renegotiated its US$4 billion railway project loan, extending the repayment period without losing control over the infrastructure. However, the impact of commercial loans for BRI projects still comes under scrutiny, as in the Zambia case.
New stakeholders, changing modes of operation
Despite state guarantees and high interest rates, Beijing has reassessed its appetite for high-risk lending and scaled back accordingly, with an increasing emphasis on sustainable investments.
The ‘small and beautiful’ model of BRI investment, established in 2021, focuses on smaller, greener, less financially risky projects for both Beijing and host countries. The aim is to mitigate the environmental degradation and social discontent that have plagued some of the larger, more ambitious projects such as Uganda’s Kampala-Entebbe Expressway.
Regardless of Beijing’s attempts to improve the BRI’s outcomes, success will be limited if African countries do not approach the initiative more proactively.
“When all the initiative in terms of concept design, funding instruments, and execution is coming from Chinese entities, then the BRI partner country feels less constrained by domestic accountability mechanisms since they don’t have major stakes involved,” he says.
Nantulya says that African countries must develop a strategic approach towards the programme. “While there has been quite a bit of deliberate policy thinking on the Chinese side, I don’t see a corresponding effort on the African side to identify Africa’s strategic approach towards China and Africa’s interest in the BRI.”
A platform for external powers' agendas
It is unlikely that China, under Xi Jinping’s leadership, will abandon the BRI. Rather, the initiative is evolving, engaging new stakeholders and changing modes of operation. Stephen Brawer, Chairman of the Belt & Road Institute in Sweden, says the BRI remains crucial to China’s global strategy and economic diplomacy. He says Beijing has already adjusted the initiative to enhance its sustainability, suggesting it will continue being a significant force in international relations.
Countries must define their goals and strategies before engaging with external actors. Otherwise, they risk becoming platforms for the agendas of external powers.
In the future African countries must prepare to articulate clearly what they want from Beijing. This will involve having conversations with regional counterparts and considering how new projects fit into broader initiatives, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area.
